MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffe3f37e9d705c84ccc17d3d73798f8ceaea897f206a0171d87da25db11d5c98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 34c | 1,995$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Kansas City Royals | 69c | 1,594$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.2 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 1,253$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.83 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 19c | 1,173$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 42c | 1,139$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…c02bbacked Athletics | 56c | 1,121$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 1,111$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f1…5729backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 377.38$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.82 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 223.88$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 18c | 94.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Athletics | 43c | 54.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Athletics | 52c | 53.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b3…966bbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 32.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Kansas City Royals | 68c | 23.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.