MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb85f4f5b59bc485dbfc7402ade98cb1d66d598128646e0119defd7ca4176b2e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 34,085$17,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,755.97 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 11,481$5,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,967.25 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 11,319$5,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,884.51 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 56c | 7,485$4,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,293.4 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 44c | 6,900$3,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 5,472$2,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 4,099$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 938.64$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.16 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 777.59$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 57c | 356.57$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 67c | 327.84$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 44c | 219.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 66c | 199$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 42c | 188.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 58c | 172.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 42c | 155.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 58c | 116.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 44c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 89.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 56c | 58.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 50.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 58c | 46.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 56c | 46.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 45c | 45.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 58c | 41.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 41c | 38.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 56c | 34.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 67c | 27.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 48c | 26.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 50c | 25.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Over | 56c | 22.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 57c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.