MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45fc233902e01702c189724513d8da310083b23a501eb2b582eec00c134055c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 63c | 33,009$20,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,335.87 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 13,896$5,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,401.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 9,221$3,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,335.98 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 7,425$3,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,305.86 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 4,172$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 2,487$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.33 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 57c | 2,222$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.49 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 36c | 1,277$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.32 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 43c | 1,041$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.4 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 683.44$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 32c | 395.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.62 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 54c | 329.39$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.74 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 44c | 304.17$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 62c | 300.19$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.07 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 47c | 245.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 39c | 226.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 217.25$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 42c | 212.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 208.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Over | 40c | 178.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Over | 47c | 117.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 42c | 116.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Over | 57c | 114.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 38c | 87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 59c | 85.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 85.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 23c | 82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 32c | 80.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 39c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 45c | 62.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 59c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 35c | 54.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 54.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 36c | 51.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Over | 36c | 50.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 40c | 49.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 23c | 47.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 32c | 42.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 46c | 32.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Over | 47c | 30.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 36c | 29.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 42c | 28.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 59c | 19.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.