Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffefd886a73174e57a57b5683ffa5897555e0ed1d718198ef1bb7c1a7414d501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,018$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,453$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,272$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 915.81$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 1c | 907.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 2c | 854.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 5c | 321.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 77c | 259.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 217.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 204.29$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 197$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 26c | 192.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 26c | 191.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 181$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 25c | 158$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 129.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 105.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 103.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 84.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 82.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 77.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 29c | 73.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…3c18backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…dd3abacked Yes | 28c | 54.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 52.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 50.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…7518backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 47.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 45.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 28c | 45.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 40.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 74c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 74c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…fe21backed No | 70c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.