Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58e8945ce5dc5c1869a4e869a8ff3effe19255f39f82cee394cb6c5a36549694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,787$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 8c | 1,581$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 10c | 1,201$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 997$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 913.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 3c | 742.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 11c | 733.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 642.65$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.59 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 641.46$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 561.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 19c | 530.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 42c | 421.73$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 366.24$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 321.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 320.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 312.77$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 35c | 305.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 16c | 281.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 14c | 278.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 269.58$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…e204backed Yes | 45c | 220.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 220$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 37c | 193.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…8c45backed Yes | 47c | 192.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 185.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 29c | 174.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 7c | 174.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 152.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 13c | 149.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 33c | 133.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 132$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 129.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 129.58$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 13c | 125.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 13c | 120.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 17c | 99.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8f…d758backed Yes | 14c | 97.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 20c | 96.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 69c | 89.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes | 12c | 87.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…5d9bbacked Yes | 12c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 82.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 16c | 81.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 57c | 76.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 21c | 69.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed No | 54c | 67.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 18c | 62.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 61.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 22c | 56.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 50.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 48.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 43c | 47.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 47.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 55c | 47.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 44c | 43.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…5011backed Yes | 48c | 42.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 44c | 41.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…5f3dbacked Yes | 44c | 39.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdc…6eedbacked Yes | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 39.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf517…a30cbacked No | 51c | 38.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 38.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 38.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 43c | 36.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 33c | 36.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 42c | 35.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…52c6backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 57c | 33.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 42c | 33.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 29.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 68c | 28.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 25.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…a1e1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Yes | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.