Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6514a0bd4f226efe74593c49b2240f25203e9ec2c8f217ec9cb1ad1dc85f14cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 14c | 2,810$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.14 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 4c | 2,026$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 55c | 1,859$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.64 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 29c | 1,602$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.25 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 1,261$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 1,243$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 1,169$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 6c | 1,101$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 35c | 1,086$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 21c | 765.95$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.37 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 15c | 738.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 28c | 736.62$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 5c | 730.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 704.27$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 577.14$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 67c | 531.63$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.06 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 22c | 486.97$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.3 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 480.32$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 32c | 406.21$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.21 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 11c | 392.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 379.83$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 17c | 354.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.16 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 300.24$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 66c | 299.37$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 294$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 19c | 284.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 275.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…ed3bbacked Yes | 19c | 266.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 260$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 7c | 259.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 253$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 6c | 252.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 14c | 245.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 13c | 241.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7af…3066backed No | 5c | 221.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 67c | 221$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 207.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 21c | 206.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 206.31$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 39c | 200.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 53c | 199.35$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 199.2$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 192$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692d…42b1backed Yes | 21c | 191.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 60c | 187.84$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 64c | 183.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 175.18$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.38 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…1f23backed No | 14c | 172.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 78c | 169.77$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 8c | 166.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 42c | 161.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 19c | 160.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 17c | 157.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 149.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 20c | 143.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c93…6db5backed Yes | 71c | 140.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 15c | 134.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 66c | 132.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed No | 25c | 131.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 129.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 30c | 129.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 36c | 129.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 79c | 124.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 20c | 120.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 14c | 117.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 21c | 116.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…8e63backed No | 33c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 106.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 104.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 25c | 101$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 33c | 100.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 72c | 96.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 20c | 89.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 88.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 60c | 83.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 68c | 83.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a56…0bf7backed Yes | 78c | 76.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 36c | 75.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 21c | 66.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 65.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0024…9238backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…5a8cbacked Yes | 27c | 54.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 53.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 66c | 52.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.