TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,113 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals68c6,848$4,628 inWon+$2,219.7511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Minnesota Twins32c4,879$1,561 inLost-$1,561.2823538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Minnesota Twins32c4,858$1,561 inLost-$1,561.281,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals68c3,007$2,044 inWon+$962.312,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins29c588.43$170 inLost-$170.4712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Kansas City Royals68c559$380 inWon+$178.881,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Kansas City Royals68c440$299 inWon+$140.889053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins34c323.17$110 inLost-$109.884,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals68c300$204 inWon+$968,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins36c299.91$107 inLost-$107.263,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Minnesota Twins34c87.88$30 inLost-$29.881,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Minnesota Twins32c75.75$24 inLost-$24.241,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins33c66.67$22 inLost-$223,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals68c62.5$43 inWon+$205,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Minnesota Twins32c62.5$20 inLost-$2079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Minnesota Twins34c35.5$12 inLost-$12.0759749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Minnesota Twins32c33$11 inLost-$10.5687352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Kansas City Royals68c30.3$21 inWon+$9.761,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3136…3544backed Kansas City Royals54c25.93$14 inWon+$11.932944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.