TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$339,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$337,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,531 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb91a…3987backed Under48c208,333$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,999.8213561.5%83 W · 52 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x72d8…5213backed Over52c196,519$102,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,329.36662.1%41 W · 25 L+9.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xced2…d98abacked Under63c20,000$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,599.933145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Over51c17,270$8,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,462.1223948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b9…cd53backed Under62c14,827$9,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,181.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over65c12,810$8,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,541.818,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over42c12,107$5,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,992.0110,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under49c8,315$4,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,045.434,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over40c7,572$3,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,512.8511,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over52c6,910$3,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,316.81,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Over52c6,910$3,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,316.823738%90 W · 147 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over43c6,650$2,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7748,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,88021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over59c5,138$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.686,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001,15349.2%567 W · 586 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.9419053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over52c3,969$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.1292554.1%500 W · 425 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under4c3,750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150498.2%4 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+173.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under56c3,741$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,088.644,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e29…5777backed Under4c3,560$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.422020%4 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+363.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5257…f324backed Under50c3,292$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.072744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0075…5f10backed Under48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.994266.7%28 W · 14 L+6.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3cac…1744backed Under44c2,868$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.041540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Under49c2,811$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.3966250.2%332 W · 330 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over40c2,403$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.8112,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f86…ef4ebacked Under49c2,391$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.585356.6%30 W · 23 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+41.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over52c1,990$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.325,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over53c1,800$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84687453%463 W · 411 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c1,400$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.876,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over42c1,395$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.238,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over49c1,318$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.644,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Under49c1,224$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60039846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a3…0fcabacked Under9c1,200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.991315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over44c1,126$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.811,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over45c1,112$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.319,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Over41c964$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.8532450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over52c932.94$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.8189053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Under47c931.43$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.2353644.6%239 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over52c925.17$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.0890053.6%482 W · 418 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Over56c884.85$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38597050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x135d…56c0backed Under49c796.16$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.126154.1%33 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Over52c754.21$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.0257548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over47c753.01$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.463,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Over41c742.41$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.9279555.6%442 W · 353 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over41c718.5$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.661,73749.1%852 W · 885 L+7.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a0…3accbacked Under49c663.78$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.255954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under48c562.52$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.011,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Under49c531.86$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.565433.3%18 W · 36 L-9.2wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Over53c510.76$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.4628154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over51c490.07$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.133,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5d9…6ae6backed Under4c446.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over42c417.87$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.362,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under48c414.81$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.291,24058.1%721 W · 519 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a5…cd84backed Under49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010046%46 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3599…5338backed Under49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012848.4%62 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3afb…0004backed Under49c408.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9810849.1%53 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39e9…e2dfbacked Under49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1967259.7%43 W · 29 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over54c397$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.171,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Over52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6224350.2%122 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Over38c360.34$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2972655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Under30c344.69$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4342241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x616a…8339backed Under49c327.2$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.33977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+49%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b95…5733backed Over38c293.52$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.821055.2%116 W · 94 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Under60c291.67$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17526747.9%128 W · 139 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Over52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.463775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.4wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+36.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over42c261.89$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.959549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over51c252.9$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9265749.2%323 W · 334 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over60c250.73$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.771,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Over62c247.66$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3166056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd6…3806backed Over70c243$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7917752.5%93 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over68c237.1$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.053,46051.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L+107.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13ec…6452backed Under49c224.49$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105064%32 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6b7…47e7backed Under44c222.01$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.68875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Over52c209.06$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3113441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010744.9%48 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2208…53eebacked Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe046…9bc6backed Over61c200.67$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5911158.6%65 W · 46 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9499947.5%475 W · 524 L-3.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked Under48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9625260.3%152 W · 100 L+16.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over72c182.57$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.125,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Over38c182.45$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1228456.7%161 W · 123 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Under48c176.04$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.534355.4%190 W · 153 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4dd…23ffbacked Under49c170$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.339440.9%161 W · 233 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6474…bd11backed Under49c153.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Over41c146.88$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.071,04051.8%539 W · 501 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under48c142$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1668652.9%363 W · 323 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Over38c139$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.181,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ed…0adfbacked Over61c136.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.524657.3%141 W · 105 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x165d…a4d5backed Over62c135.01$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.969960.6%60 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under28c132.57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.123,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Over38c129.5$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6930340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e0e…704abacked Over61c124.68$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.837758.4%45 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1026…e794backed Over62c123.09$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.377160.6%43 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Over68c122.34$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2537551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf768…7831backed Under49c120.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.284259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over44c118.37$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.292,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over43c118$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.885,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over37c115.93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.696,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c1b…555bbacked Over63c114$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.071323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-57.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.