MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8861e1733bba99ff8899597ca644eb8b779e317e7f2f8c3991b894ab1fa710d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 5,431$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,951.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 3,172$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 1,216$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 878.26$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 509.46$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 498.74$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.44 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 405.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 209.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 189.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 131$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 125.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 20c | 85.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 76.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 63.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 58.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 51.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 50.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 49.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 44.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Minnesota Twins | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…6498backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…24b8backed Minnesota Twins | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.