TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Minnesota Twinsof Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,504 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18ec…8b90backed Kansas City Royals0c12,000$12 inLost-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins73c3,154$2,289 inWon+$865.474,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals41c2,933$1,212 inLost-$1,211.898,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins76c1,427$1,084 inWon+$343.6511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf35backed Kansas City Royals4c326$13 inLost-$13.045644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals29c269.01$78 inLost-$78.018,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Kansas City Royals9c222.22$20 inLost-$2011648.3%56 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Kansas City Royals24c219.67$53 inLost-$52.924231%13 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Kansas City Royals21c196.96$42 inLost-$42.0742241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Kansas City Royals24c134$32 inLost-$32.161,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals29c95.76$28 inLost-$27.773,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals35c92.8$32 inLost-$32.485,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Kansas City Royals72c80$58 inLost-$57.61,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Minnesota Twins70c73.67$52 inWon+$22.11,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Kansas City Royals30c66.67$20 inLost-$2079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins47c54$25 inWon+$28.7212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals29c40.59$12 inLost-$11.772,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x738e…dc37backed Minnesota Twins32c35.4$11 inWon+$23.948949.4%44 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Kansas City Royals42c30$12 inLost-$12.451,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98bc…537bbacked Kansas City Royals71c22.51$16 inLost-$15.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Minnesota Twins72c20$14 inWon+$5.626762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.