MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf067d027435b49fc5fd0a810bcbb5eb9756d8068ece9a021e9ad2b36f8244067
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 6c | 5,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…0fcabacked Under | 5c | 4,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 64c | 3,266$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.86 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 3,114$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Over | 41c | 2,312$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.21 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 58c | 2,035$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.79 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 1,906$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.96 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 1,473$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 981.22$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.48 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 30c | 862.11$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.68 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed Over | 42c | 706.78$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 41c | 579.35$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.58 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 56c | 501.22$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.05 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Under | 59c | 439.34$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.21 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 9c | 389.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 59c | 311.47$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.77 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 76c | 279.98$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.33 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 36c | 273.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 41c | 249.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 228.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 57.1%116 W · 87 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 168.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 38c | 155.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.22 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 29c | 153.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 78c | 127.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 115$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 58c | 111.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 20c | 107.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 99.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ec…6452backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Under | 56c | 70.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085a…58a8backed Under | 57c | 69.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 74c | 68.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 36c | 68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 74c | 67.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Under | 60c | 66.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 60c | 64.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 58c | 60.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 41c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 51.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…1cb8backed Under | 40c | 48.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 57c | 48.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 25c | 43.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 80c | 39.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 44c | 38.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 74c | 37.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 62c | 36.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…b23ebacked Over | 44c | 35.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…7f0cbacked Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed Over | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 63c | 31.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Under | 77c | 30.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 39c | 27.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Over | 42c | 24.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Under | 64c | 21.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 59c | 18.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.