MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23d32bba25366092ec56a8e3ca6be9afe61c7534b992144172cc4dc0f25a137b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 3,863$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.18 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 2,372$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.03 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,372$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 1,254$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.59 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 665.07$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.22 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 659.52$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.11 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 40c | 466.34$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 59c | 375.73$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.05 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 60c | 320.08$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.03 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 59c | 319.39$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 33c | 297.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.15 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 33c | 297.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.11 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 276.54$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 43c | 239.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 63c | 221.9$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 211.09$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 201.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 60c | 174.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 28c | 173.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 34c | 136.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 118$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 117.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 45c | 111.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 34c | 76.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 33c | 75.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 59.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 57.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 52.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 47.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 60c | 37.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 71c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 55c | 35.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 41c | 33.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 54c | 32.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 53c | 31.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Over | 46c | 28.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 56c | 27.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 53c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 57c | 25.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Over | 53c | 20.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 63c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 70c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.