TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,604
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,604 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes30c1,166$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8431043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x186c…f982backed No79c945.19$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.883060%18 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No69c581.75$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.5510966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes34c528.47$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6351733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c3…d8f0backed Yes19c471.65$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.261526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-35.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No76c450$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.519148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes5c408.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.418537.6%32 W · 53 L+15.1wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+161.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c306.17$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes27c281.7$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.211,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No68c278.83$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.772,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c266.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.729,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c260.27$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.774,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1f…e691backed Yes31c256$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.372330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca06…b2c4backed No76c205.87$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.873360.6%20 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No77c200$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7479040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes45c195.89$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes24c194.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.774940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes35c191.82$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2545130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes21c176.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c176$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.34,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes16c173.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.338,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82e7…f552backed Yes24c163.69$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3435441%145 W · 209 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No67c158.43$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.351,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3016…54e9backed Yes36c156.27$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8813614.7%20 W · 116 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes28c155.71$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No69c151.27$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.381,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes27c149.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7242544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…2cdabacked Yes21c143.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c140.19$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.723,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c137$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.75,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes27c129.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d2…9145backed Yes17c126.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52859.4%8 W · 77 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No68c117.61$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.591,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No71c113.31$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes26c111.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x788d…bdd0backed Yes27c110.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c107$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.245,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c106$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.413,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4269…e056backed No76c103.09$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.185100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Yes18c101.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1723334.3%80 W · 153 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc06d…6732backed Yes23c101$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.472556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8096…006dbacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No74c99.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8923677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes19c95.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.911,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91c0…d4dabacked No68c95$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.055381.1%43 W · 10 L+8.5wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No64c94.87$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.312,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecd…9b27backed Yes26c92.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.432937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No70c92.25$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.951,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c91.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.17,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8d10…29e8backed Yes27c91.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes32c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0760739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf39…b050backed Yes28c88.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.052560%15 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c88$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67e5…c08fbacked Yes29c86.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.132733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1294919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3642…c2f0backed No75c79.73$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.73966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No68c79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b5e…4c95backed Yes31c75.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.62955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.182,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x820d…05b2backed Yes29c73.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85db…1423backed Yes41c72.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.526666.7%44 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes16c70.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.115,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No75c68.54$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.953,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No67c67.77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.281,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No73c65.54$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.582,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No70c62.49$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7644465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No73c62.36$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.853,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.613738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No71c59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1139966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes20c55.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9825946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed No65c53.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9817553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No75c53.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes31c53.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6613838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No69c53.43$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes22c51.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5248149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ea…105dbacked No66c51.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes32c51.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No68c50.25$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.022,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3155…cf15backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b6a…6b3fbacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8442…3eddbacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143426.5%9 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes24c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes31c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.317144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes20c49.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes30c49.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.991,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes31c49.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1534050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5801…ceeebacked Yes24c46.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241973.7%14 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick70cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3f…90fbbacked Yes24c46.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c45.61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.417,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes31c45.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1617033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c44.51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.323,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No72c41.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8641760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafac…85d6backed Yes31c39.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No71c37.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.652,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes30c36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.682035%7 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No75c34.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.583,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.