Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0022a20e4735234433d53a9b5efd781e328e876d3551d5b07556b732786f32f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,166$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.84 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 79c | 945.19$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.88 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 69c | 581.75$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.55 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 34c | 528.47$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.63 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed Yes | 19c | 471.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 76c | 450$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 5c | 408.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 306.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 27c | 281.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 278.83$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 266.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 260.27$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…e691backed Yes | 31c | 256$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed No | 76c | 205.87$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 45c | 195.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 24c | 194.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 35c | 191.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 176.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 176$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 173.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 24c | 163.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 158.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 36c | 156.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 28c | 155.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 151.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 27c | 149.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…2cdabacked Yes | 21c | 143.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 140.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 137$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 27c | 129.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 17c | 126.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 117.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 113.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 111.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…bdd0backed Yes | 27c | 110.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 107$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 106$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4269…e056backed No | 76c | 103.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 18c | 101.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 23c | 101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8096…006dbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 74c | 99.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 19c | 95.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 94.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed Yes | 26c | 92.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 92.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 91.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed Yes | 27c | 91.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed Yes | 28c | 88.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked Yes | 29c | 86.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c2f0backed No | 75c | 79.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…4c95backed Yes | 31c | 75.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820d…05b2backed Yes | 29c | 73.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 41c | 72.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 70.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 68.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 67c | 67.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 65.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 70c | 62.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 62.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 20c | 55.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 65c | 53.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 53.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 31c | 53.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 53.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 22c | 51.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…105dbacked No | 66c | 51.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 32c | 51.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 50.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…cf15backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6b3fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 20c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 49.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 31c | 49.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…ceeebacked Yes | 24c | 46.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3f…90fbbacked Yes | 24c | 46.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 45.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 31c | 45.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 44.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 72c | 41.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafac…85d6backed Yes | 31c | 39.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 37.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 34.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.