Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd021f75e6abc8870034627be64d99ad5a8b0ad62299a792d79f6c16e7ec5ffc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 58c | 895.88$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.94 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 59c | 390.36$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 312.31$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 300.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 37c | 291.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 5c | 254.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 237$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 235.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 72c | 214.52$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 66c | 178.21$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 33c | 176.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 55c | 170$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 156.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 154.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 50c | 152.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 29c | 125.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 41c | 116.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 50c | 108.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 107$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 37c | 100.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 58c | 100.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 45c | 99.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 94.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf723…a499backed Yes | 75c | 93.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 45c | 89.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 55c | 89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 39c | 80.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 74.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 77c | 71.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 70.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 31c | 69.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…388fbacked Yes | 61c | 69.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 68.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 49c | 63.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 18c | 62.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 50c | 59.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 44c | 56.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 56c | 53.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 46c | 52.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 41c | 52.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 58c | 50.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 60c | 49.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 74c | 48.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 47.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 45c | 44.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 61c | 44.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 44.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 40.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…1beabacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ee48backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 56c | 34.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…f395backed Yes | 60c | 31.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 30.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…dd3dbacked Yes | 56c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6b3fbacked Yes | 59c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…2fb3backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.