NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x002527d0d6b73f8ceb25117b5f8267882dc0421b8479bb96d274549c4aa7b5e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof 49ers, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Jaguars | 55c | 2,598$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.18 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed 49ers | 45c | 2,225$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.24 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Jaguars | 53c | 1,757$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Jaguars | 54c | 1,332$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.89 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed 49ers | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked 49ers | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…2c03backed 49ers | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Jaguars | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked 49ers | 47c | 950$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.5 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Jaguars | 51c | 930.82$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.1 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked 49ers | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed 49ers | 47c | 581.71$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.71 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers | 45c | 570.64$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.79 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Jaguars | 53c | 549.77$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.39 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed 49ers | 45c | 480$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Jaguars | 52c | 465$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed 49ers | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Jaguars | 54c | 429.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.93 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed 49ers | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked 49ers | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked 49ers | 46c | 271.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…8547backed Jaguars | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Jaguars | 54c | 242.13$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.38 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Jaguars | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Jaguars | 53c | 188.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.28 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Jaguars | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed 49ers | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Jaguars | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Jaguars | 52c | 128.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked 49ers | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed 49ers | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked 49ers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed 49ers | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e7abbacked Jaguars | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Jaguars | 54c | 84.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Jaguars | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Jaguars | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…4937backed Jaguars | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…0e09backed Jaguars | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked 49ers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Jaguars | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed 49ers | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed 49ers | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)this page
- Jaguars vs. 49ersJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. 49ers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.