F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00264831b7115939c987b85eb98c41b1882d6c154f3886b5c2df27ba00c2f9d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 31c | 3,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 66c | 826.25$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.46 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 69c | 797.1$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 51c | 594.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 33c | 564.68$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.55 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4489…2452backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 49c | 467.13$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.23 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Yes | 30c | 404.28$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 39c | 374.89$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.68 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3665…0212backed Yes | 35c | 360$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 60c | 349.52$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…7b61backed Yes | 57c | 333$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 62c | 199.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 39c | 152.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 34c | 147.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 58c | 121$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9927…445ebacked Yes | 46c | 108.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee2…a868backed No | 62c | 108$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c8…1b36backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…3b90backed No | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 70c | 76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…bbebbacked Yes | 46c | 70.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…6d2abacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…2833backed Yes | 40c | 51.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 33c | 45.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…3e56backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 37.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 68c | 36.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…b093backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 66c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…d42fbacked Yes | 61c | 26.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0723…3ad8backed Yes | 37c | 26.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…4426backed No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb565…f6ffbacked No | 45c | 24.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…5d42backed Yes | 47c | 22.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes | 61c | 19.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Esteban Ocon get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.