F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91646de75682a34f213ea6253af76ca653f8f8dfb1af1daed2b47f37bc38f0a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,576$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0375…2a75backed Yes | 31c | 3,579$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 27c | 3,049$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.33 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…559dbacked No | 73c | 2,318$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 70c | 2,127$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 8c | 1,460$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 74c | 1,377$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.62 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 74c | 899.67$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 26c | 650$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 22c | 545.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 11c | 320$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bf…3a84backed Yes | 17c | 299.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 25c | 270.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked No | 75c | 249.97$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 44c | 223.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…d519backed Yes | 9c | 175.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed No | 73c | 150$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fff…9d61backed Yes | 21c | 109.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0985…8415backed Yes | 28c | 106.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 102.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c8…1b36backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9927…445ebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3371backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 73c | 75.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Yes | 56c | 66.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 32c | 60.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 22c | 52.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed No | 77c | 52.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…9c04backed Yes | 55c | 50.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…c251backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…a4c9backed Yes | 53c | 46.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Yes | 26c | 44.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…dd63backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked No | 74c | 17.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Esteban Ocon get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.