NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x004e785ccffd107944ca481d212f5e314b6dbe824ce4df2b252b848dc75ebc17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc27e…d30bbacked Over | 49c | 6,300$3,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,075.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 51c | 2,700$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 49c | 1,239$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.89 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Under | 50c | 934.7$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 53c | 920.53$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.32 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 594.91$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…4eaebacked Over | 50c | 398.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 348$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.52 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 48c | 240$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 49c | 202.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 50c | 113.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 106.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed Under | 52c | 106.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 51c | 99.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 70.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…caddbacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 29.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5this page
- Kings vs. ThunderThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Kings won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.