NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d48172e5925703727f5771148204b0a1b017222633c77d647d93711c2de52f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Thunder, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Kings | 51c | 13,085$6,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,411.71 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Thunder | 49c | 12,577$6,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,162 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Kings | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.97 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked Kings | 57c | 1,902$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.45 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Thunder | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Thunder | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Thunder | 47c | 1,364$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kings | 54c | 800.74$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Thunder | 47c | 627.6$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.14 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 55c | 586.5$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Thunder | 44c | 501.75$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.75 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Thunder | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe127…546cbacked Thunder | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 42c | 325$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Kings | 49c | 305.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.05 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Thunder | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Kings | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Thunder | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 28.3%43 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Kings | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Thunder | 49c | 181.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Kings | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 46c | 156.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Thunder | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Thunder | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Thunder | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…d1d0backed Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Kings | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3905…c574backed Thunder | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Kings | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Kings | 51c | 96.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 50c | 64.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Thunder | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Thunder | 46c | 54.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Thunder | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Thunder | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Thunder | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Kings | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7bfabacked Thunder | 51c | 28.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Kings | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fb4fbacked Thunder | 51c | 21.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb7…faf0backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c0…1222backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)this page
- Kings vs. ThunderThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Kings won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.