Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x009f7e859ed0d3b5727e344258ee27633877902c503357ef07f139d34381d483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 730.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 703.42$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.05 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 30c | 640.22$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.56 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 24c | 561.83$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 541.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 443.8$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 402$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 357.08$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 348$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 79c | 286.5$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 78c | 254.09$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 12c | 244.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 224.59$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 190.22$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 18c | 189.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 175.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 13c | 120.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 112.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 21c | 102.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 94.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 49c | 79.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 75.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 24c | 69.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 26c | 67.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 67.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 48c | 66.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 24c | 66.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 66.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 35c | 64.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 63.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 54.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 49.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 70c | 48.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 40c | 47.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 72c | 36.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…f4a2backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 32.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 29.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 76c | 26.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes | 40c | 25.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 53c | 24.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 24.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 62c | 24.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 75c | 22.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 20.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 49c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 16.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 75c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.