Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95afb89c792523ff2d7ccf93ec7e772f54f36f4ff4464c366d46eebff7dbeaf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe30…687fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 1c | 5,308$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,497$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 382.64$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 36c | 374.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…5551backed No | 64c | 310.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7827…a351backed Yes | 22c | 267.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 40c | 250.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 204.74$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 181.24$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked No | 78c | 181.09$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 175.1$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 150.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab9…bedebacked No | 61c | 142.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…2f69backed Yes | 24c | 125.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 118.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 116.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 111.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 67c | 110.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 32c | 109.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 108.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 37c | 97.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 22c | 91.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 77c | 83.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 69.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 36c | 58.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 35c | 57.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 22c | 57.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 53.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 20c | 51.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 73c | 50.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…fc4cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 49.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 36c | 43.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 38c | 37.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed No | 77c | 34.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 31c | 33.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 77c | 23.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 62c | 20.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 62c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 13.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.