Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00fa226c327cf126a46593cc37142f9fd63b0715448553274a172fa27ac6aba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 31c | 641.18$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 536.63$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 474.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 8c | 399.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 342.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 328.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 5c | 201.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 197.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 165.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 80c | 153.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 151.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 148$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 133.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 129$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…f053backed No | 77c | 123.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 104.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 96.19$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked Yes | 18c | 73.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed Yes | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 32.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 31.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 37c | 28.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 26.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 25.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 24.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0e…4ccfbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…2de0backed No | 75c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 17.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.