Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbc2582bb762e658fe27ed7b59682017c78c857bcdcfb0042c1b136f1c33f5c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,165$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.77 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 22c | 493.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.83 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 395.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 22c | 366.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed Yes | 36c | 264.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 18c | 182.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 177.7$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 170.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 30c | 163.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.33 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 46c | 144.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 139.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 137$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 131$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 125.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 25c | 125.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 77c | 117.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 115$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 33c | 113.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 100.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 33c | 98.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 31c | 97.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 69c | 88.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 69c | 88.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 18c | 88.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 82.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 71c | 81.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 81.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 34c | 80.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 34c | 73.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 35c | 71.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 70.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 59.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 59.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…de4abacked Yes | 26c | 58.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 56.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 54.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 50.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b8…cf6cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 46.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 44.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 32c | 43.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 30c | 36.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 36.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 78c | 35.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 68c | 33.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8f…f793backed Yes | 37c | 33.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 32.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 31c | 31.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 78c | 28.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 67c | 21.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 76c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 16.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 13.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.