Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x012bc6043b96665ec4341905ad479bf835f04133fd2290bdfa1eafc4208bd873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 43c | 625.03$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.62 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 513.21$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 60c | 434.19$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.68 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 28c | 403$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.09 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 402.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.88 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 347.47$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 45c | 313.83$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.83 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 62c | 289.17$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.29 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 274.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 19c | 227.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 207$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.37 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 187.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 184.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 66c | 164.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 46c | 163.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 146.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 45c | 139.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 135.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 132$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 127.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 26c | 127$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 125.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 112.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 108.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 42c | 100.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 31c | 91.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 86.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 85.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 84.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 80.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 37c | 80.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 32c | 75.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 63.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 62.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 61.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 61.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 30c | 58.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 56c | 57.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 54.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 29c | 51.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 49.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 56c | 44.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 48c | 43.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes | 75c | 42.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 41.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 40.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 40.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 38.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 36.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 36.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 52c | 35.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 80c | 34.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 33.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 32c | 32.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 60c | 28.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 40c | 28.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 63c | 28.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 60c | 24.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 18.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…4907backed No | 61c | 17.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 15.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.