Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47e2b7629ec49883d36ca9b6d047c21de8e35b7cbe7616e2498712ce2fbf4491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 41c | 880.38$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 809.49$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 28c | 688$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.17 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 41c | 484.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 55c | 475.5$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.36 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 440.15$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 356.39$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 318.79$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 12c | 248.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 246.6$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.95 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 62c | 236.4$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 213$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 201$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 192.58$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 188$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 176.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 45c | 160.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 154.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 145$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 39c | 142.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 137.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 42c | 131.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 123$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 121$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 59c | 119.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 14c | 114$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 42c | 113.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 101$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 97.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 15c | 94.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 19c | 93.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 38c | 90.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 84.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 83.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 80.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 73.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 72.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 17c | 68.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 48c | 65.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 62.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 28c | 57.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 45c | 51.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 31c | 51.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 48.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 57c | 44.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 43.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 64c | 41.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 37c | 41.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 39.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 38.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 80c | 37.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 34c | 36.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 36.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 33c | 36.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 31c | 36.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 35.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 34.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 33.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 60c | 28.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 61c | 27.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 41c | 26.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed Yes | 38c | 26.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 52c | 26.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 58c | 17.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.