Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01c076d673d1fd43d04540c80ec0a2e2d5f7f9a331431301ee6aed8d9910621b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 73c | 431.58$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…060bbacked Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 41c | 298.15$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 267.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 261.43$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 25c | 250$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 240.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 228.18$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 217.35$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 205.12$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 35c | 203.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 65c | 202.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 200.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked No | 66c | 199.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 73c | 192.14$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 29c | 190.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 19c | 178.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 17c | 174.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 159.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 26c | 155.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 35c | 153.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 136.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked No | 78c | 126.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 122.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 119.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 20c | 116.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 19c | 115.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 76c | 107.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 105.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 38c | 104.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed Yes | 34c | 103.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 20c | 96.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 59c | 94.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 38c | 92.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 21c | 82.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 59c | 79.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 32c | 77.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 76.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1e…b206backed Yes | 48c | 75.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…043abacked Yes | 27c | 72.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 70.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 44c | 68.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…c77dbacked Yes | 21c | 68.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 40c | 67.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 67.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…2fbabacked No | 66c | 65.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 62c | 64.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 31c | 64.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 33c | 63.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 18c | 63.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…eba4backed Yes | 34c | 59.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 27c | 55.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 70c | 54.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe753…f67cbacked Yes | 22c | 53.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 46c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 44c | 45.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 35c | 45.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 44.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609d…daccbacked Yes | 48c | 44.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 43.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…21d1backed Yes | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 41.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 59c | 41.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 35c | 40.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 38.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…8d87backed No | 74c | 37.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 32c | 36.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…e3ddbacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 35.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 33c | 33.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 32.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 46c | 31.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…9253backed No | 79c | 27.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 37c | 27.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 77c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 73c | 25.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 72c | 23.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 66c | 23.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…a65bbacked No | 58c | 22.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 57c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 58c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…56f6backed No | 62c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 76c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.