Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eaf782b96ad0ba896d9ccaab5dc4b2ea03be8552e90060a499d20a7b3aa1cc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 2c | 1,533$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 22c | 744.75$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.18 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 47c | 558.7$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.73 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked No | 15c | 467.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 372.54$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 328.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 300.68$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 273.34$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 60c | 264.96$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 39c | 257.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 35c | 238.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 229.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 64c | 216.73$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 215.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 40c | 173.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 68c | 172.4$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked Yes | 46c | 170.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 169.35$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 40c | 168$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.53 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 167.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 50c | 166.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 66c | 163.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 163.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 156.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 148.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 35c | 138.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 39c | 138.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 37c | 135.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 56c | 131.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 121.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 36c | 116$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 112.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 101.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 35c | 98.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 96.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 93.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 89.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 88.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 59c | 87.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 49c | 85.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 83.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 62c | 81.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 74.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 71c | 73.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 70.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 69.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 42c | 63.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 66c | 62.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 60.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 32c | 59.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 22c | 59.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 69c | 59.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 60c | 56.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 52c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc527…773dbacked Yes | 37c | 54.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 53.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 33c | 53.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 64c | 52.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 21c | 52.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 55c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 51.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked Yes | 64c | 50.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…bd7fbacked No | 71c | 50.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 53c | 50.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 63c | 50.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 49c | 50.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 65c | 47.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 25c | 44.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…4e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 44.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 68c | 43.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 63c | 42.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5296…39cdbacked No | 65c | 42.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 35c | 41.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 37c | 40.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 42c | 39.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 45c | 37.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…f69fbacked No | 68c | 35.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…7fecbacked Yes | 39c | 34.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 34.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 38c | 34.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 33.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 60c | 32.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.