Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9fc4bbd62abdeafc6156a57b2a11438895a3d875d4f3abd11bc992412af55d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,988$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.76 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 5c | 994.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 27c | 698.6$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.42 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 5c | 546.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 17c | 412.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 72c | 334.23$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 329.56$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 287.14$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…f161backed Yes | 19c | 276.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 266.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 77c | 258.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 240.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 228.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 227.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 207.07$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 16c | 203.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 196.85$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 196.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 75c | 191.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 180.82$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 177.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 169.15$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…060bbacked Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 149.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 20c | 147$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 144.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 78c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 17c | 124.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 30c | 116$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 80c | 114.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…21d1backed Yes | 25c | 113.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 112.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 112.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed Yes | 33c | 112.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 20c | 111.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 18c | 108.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked No | 76c | 105.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7d…0f88backed Yes | 19c | 102.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 78c | 98.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 97.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 14c | 96.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 30c | 96.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 83.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 59c | 79.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 21c | 77.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 79c | 72.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 19c | 68.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 68.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 77c | 64.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed No | 78c | 64.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 39c | 64.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 64.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 59.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 79c | 54.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 54.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 51.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 51.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…d162backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 23c | 47.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 46.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b2…cf28backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 41.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 27c | 36.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked No | 72c | 36.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 69c | 36.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 30c | 34.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 80c | 31.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…9253backed No | 80c | 31.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 27.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 76c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 77c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 25.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 76c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 22.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…466ebacked No | 80c | 21.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 78c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 78c | 21.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 72c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 71c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 73c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 68c | 16.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.