TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,408 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes26c2,988$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.7630919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes5c994.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2957614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes27c698.6$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.421,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes5c546.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes17c412.42$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.91258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+77.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No72c334.23$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2839966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No79c329.56$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.22,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c299.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No74c287.14$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.322,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x553a…f161backed Yes19c276.14$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes27c266.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.552,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bd…e555backed No77c258.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.338035%28 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c240.11$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes27c228.83$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.281,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes15c227.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.731,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No71c207.07$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes16c203.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3331442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c196.85$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.444,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No76c196.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No75c191.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No79c180.82$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.621,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes23c177.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.165,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No75c169.15$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.692,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf07a…060bbacked Yes19c149.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes30c149.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2837835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes20c147$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6925239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No77c144.67$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6797570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3342976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No78c130$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.351,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes17c124.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2516030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes30c116$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.86823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No80c114.17$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9252571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd33…21d1backed Yes25c113.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.78140%0 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No79c112.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4927771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes22c112.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.921,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a72…9d77backed Yes33c112.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.043745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes20c111.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.233,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes18c108.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4618033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45e…717ebacked No76c105.8$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.986471.9%46 W · 18 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes18c105.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7d…0f88backed Yes19c102.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.42425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No78c98.97$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5320161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes26c97.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.021,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes14c96.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6458732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes30c96.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.118845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c83.97$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.952,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No59c79.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6434250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes21c77.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.516626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No79c72.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6814671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes19c68.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9260523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes29c68.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0393837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No77c64.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6514666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa596…15e9backed No78c64.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.152454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes39c64.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.999832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes18c64.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.363,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes32c59.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No79c54.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.517066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No76c54.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.272466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes27c51.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No76c51.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.371,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1335465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc45c…d162backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes23c47.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.037037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c46.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.729,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81b2…cf28backed No80c45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.051361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick75cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.251,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No70c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5554857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No77c41.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5348672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes27c36.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010228.4%29 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1907…ac1abacked No72c36.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.363560%21 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No69c36.18$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes30c34.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44353.5%23 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c33.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.673,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No80c31.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4450648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c6c…9253backed No80c31.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.28475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick78cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No59c27.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No69c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2835058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2aa…3e28backed No76c26.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.415959.3%35 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde08…b228backed No77c25.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.893366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No72c25.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.041,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.334,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No79c24.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c1…be67backed No76c24.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.813488.2%30 W · 4 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick67cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c22.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.944,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No47c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.661,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No74c21.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.692,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc758…466ebacked No80c21.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dba…5b01backed No78c21.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.725766.7%38 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No78c21.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.565981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No72c20.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.838258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No66c20.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c6…3eb8backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.43363.6%21 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick74cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.850373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No71c19.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6741258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40b…dc70backed No73c19.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.35246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No73c19.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1817376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked No68c16.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5119160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No74c16.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.297,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.