Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 before 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01eb1e2a8e3a1ee7d913d6f705f9ff324bab2fcf09de3de5378039fceedae951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6091…972bbacked Yes | 64c | 2,230$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 56c | 1,117$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.33 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 46c | 845.93$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…8bfdbacked Yes | 27c | 516.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 60c | 499.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 430.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40bd…bef9backed Yes | 40c | 410.65$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 41c | 338.85$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…02a7backed Yes | 69c | 325.99$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 31c | 303.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.08 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…873abacked Yes | 58c | 262.54$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 35c | 167.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…3b76backed No | 61c | 163.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfc…83ebbacked Yes | 67c | 150.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…f53abacked No | 15c | 149.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…668cbacked No | 70c | 121.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…fb44backed Yes | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…1209backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 70c | 72.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…80f3backed Yes | 40c | 67.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 32c | 61.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…e4bcbacked Yes | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…1de2backed Yes | 40c | 42.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…f3cdbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 38c | 35.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 52c | 34.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a89…c71bbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 62c | 29.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…9033backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Yes | 78c | 18.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cd…3bfebacked No | 67c | 16.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 before 2026?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?No won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?No won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $55 in 2025?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.