Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x023bcc6bc86418ed518fef05d5a779ff66c6785c04cd5f10e0b5997cc9e1bfec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 38c | 3,150$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.17 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 563$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 510$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 500.8$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.49 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 494$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 306$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 289$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.07 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 214$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 11c | 195$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.15 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 150.53$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…037fbacked No | 62c | 143.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 55c | 126$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 90.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 32c | 84.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 77.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed No | 62c | 74.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 67.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…064cbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 42.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 40c | 41.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked No | 76c | 30.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 65c | 20.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 21?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.