MLB · resolved market
Will the Detroit Tigers win the AL Central Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x029b97c107ad80bb70e0a8047336c482e718b3a43270d07214e824e70a5dfe33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $389,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $395,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf07…2313backed Yes | 47c | 38,549$18,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,118.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638f…fb41backed No | 53c | 38,549$20,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,118.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…8ac6backed No | 54c | 36,502$19,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,790.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…afd3backed Yes | 46c | 36,502$16,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,790.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2499…c3cebacked Yes | 47c | 34,922$16,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,413.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b93…7edbbacked No | 53c | 34,922$18,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,413.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bf…89b3backed No | 56c | 31,725$17,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,959 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…da6dbacked Yes | 44c | 31,725$13,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,959 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…2e1fbacked Yes | 35c | 29,522$10,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,332.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…f8b8backed No | 65c | 29,522$19,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,332.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed No | 69c | 2,340$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.84 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 53c | 2,198$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.65 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 24c | 2,115$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.08 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 53c | 1,901$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,385$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 62c | 1,209$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.55 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 72c | 861.79$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.99 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 6c | 603$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.82 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…da14backed Yes | 44c | 593.42$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 75c | 541.17$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.61 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 80c | 526.45$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.98 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 70c | 402$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.19 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked No | 12c | 350$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 323$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 4c | 306.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.82 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 39c | 283$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 51c | 265$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.37 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 66c | 235$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 25c | 153.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed No | 67c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed No | 24c | 84.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +310.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 48c | 83.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked No | 29c | 77.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 30c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…8f21backed Yes | 49c | 38.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb28…f6b5backed Yes | 51c | 31.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa118…1a57backed No | 53c | 28.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510d…a729backed Yes | 49c | 28.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 47c | 27.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…7976backed No | 53c | 22.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4598…3057backed No | 54c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…bc11backed No | 54c | 18.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…4c14backed Yes | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Detroit Tigers win the AL Central Division?this page
- Will the Chicago White Sox win the AL Central Division?No won
- Will the Cleveland Guardians win the AL Central Division?Yes won
- Will the Kansas City Royals win the AL Central Division?No won
- Will the Minnesota Twins win the AL Central Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.