MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02f2bfea017e4889b51329d71dec24fe7e1c8a14ee6269c746aec0f5d3d83f1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 50c | 1,856$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.84 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 50c | 1,849$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 48c | 480.77$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.77 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 50c | 410.25$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.13 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 49c | 130.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked No | 59c | 123.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 51c | 90.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 49c | 90.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 49c | 82.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 51c | 55.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Yes | 51c | 41.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 49c | 32.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 50c | 25.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…a1e4backed Yes | 51c | 19.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giantsthis page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.