Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0316c6e9520e806bfb1265c57c01ad632a92433f412ee807f3bf3f4fef068003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,035$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 718.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 345.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cf…aa54backed Yes | 3c | 326.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 295.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 257.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 12c | 249.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 227.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 210.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 16c | 140.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 12c | 124.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 12c | 121.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 107.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 18c | 103.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes | 20c | 96.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 96.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 12c | 87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…8c1fbacked Yes | 17c | 80.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 14c | 76.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 49.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 80c | 49.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 49.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.