Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb8f7aa33746b01f7693d0457e717a383b1dc6b531f8a58c91a7349ba779acb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 4c | 1,735$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 42c | 523.21$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.82 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 287.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 246.04$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cf…aa54backed No | 5c | 218.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 8c | 217.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 12c | 200.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 198.42$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 198$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 143.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 137.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 63c | 131.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 130.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 126.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 34c | 124.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 39c | 117.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 116.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 39c | 109.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 37c | 99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 37c | 90.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 41c | 87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 67c | 81.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 33c | 77.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 57c | 76.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 50c | 69.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 62c | 64.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 36c | 63.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 53.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 53.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 52.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 53c | 50.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 61c | 49.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 48.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 31c | 47.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 34c | 46.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 62c | 46.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 38c | 45.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 39c | 45.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 45.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 58c | 41.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 40.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 45c | 39.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 51c | 38.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 48c | 38.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 47c | 37.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 37.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 45c | 36.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 38c | 36.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 38c | 35.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 45c | 33.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 68c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 63c | 32.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 26.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…02debacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 46c | 25.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 22.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 20.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 20.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 18.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 66c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…9177backed No | 69c | 16.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 15.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 15.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.