Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc18216c48d0fd3e60176f8f2c6d39cbc10e0ce3cb25bb3645d9690af62db610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 42c | 347.22$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 63c | 343.58$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.85 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 305.79$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 198$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 51c | 196.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 181.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 52c | 179.96$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed Yes | 51c | 177.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 171.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 72c | 167.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 51c | 154.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 52c | 152.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 143.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 33c | 128.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 128.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 118.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 49c | 116$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 115.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 34c | 113$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 112.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 48c | 109.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 51c | 103$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 52c | 102.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 40c | 101.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 61c | 99.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 46c | 98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 49c | 90.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 81.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 80.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 47c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 47c | 70.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 38c | 67.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 66.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 32c | 63.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 47c | 53.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 35c | 50.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 50.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 62c | 48.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 43c | 48.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 53c | 46.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 34c | 44.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 42.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 47c | 42.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…5c4abacked Yes | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…838ebacked No | 49c | 41.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 41.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 51c | 38.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 37.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 37.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 35.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 46c | 34.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 48c | 34.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…02debacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 50c | 31.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…9096backed Yes | 36c | 30.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 52c | 27.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 67c | 26.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 46c | 26.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 25.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 25.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 25.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 43c | 24.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 24.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 53c | 22.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 22.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 22.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 50c | 21.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…8c1fbacked No | 68c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.