TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,847
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,847 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No3c1,634$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.261,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes38c1,107$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.74,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes44c792.97$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.761,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…9044backed Yes22c785.41$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.058920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes18c621.78$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.878,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c556.87$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.173,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c476.12$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes80c371.63$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2177151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No46c341.86$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.154,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No8c312$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.966219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c299$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.495,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes21c250.32$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5817536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No58c236.19$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1637056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes19c226$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.311,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes79c224.35$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.62,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes59c212$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.422,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No56c203.78$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.184,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No79c197.84$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6221068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No40c180$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.625,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c178.97$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.741,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes46c167.05$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3824046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes24c152.84$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.435325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c150.59$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.866,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes59c150.17$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes56c129.59$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6899962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No78c128.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0132872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes70c124.86$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.461442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d01…7151backed Yes20c122.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.71922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No62c118.58$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6423560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No78c118$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.41,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No43c112$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.24,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No71c111.92$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9292678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked No11c108.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4634628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No76c106.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.314,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes21c105.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3546240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No12c100.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.542,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7944448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No77c93.03$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf75f…b458backed No48c91.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.74452.3%23 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+12.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeae4…5c60backed Yes55c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.891266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes58c86.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4431943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes22c84.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5648919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes16c83.16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.723,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes21c81.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.71,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes63c79.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9634050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes36c79.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.79545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes19c78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1614524.1%35 W · 110 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes22c75.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2730332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes21c70.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1323241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes43c70$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b62…e627backed No72c70$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309b…40a1backed Yes43c69.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.91127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No80c69.69$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7558152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc3e…cefdbacked No79c69.39$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555667.9%38 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No70c68.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.142,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No23c67.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes24c67.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.982,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b3…e571backed Yes17c66.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.73237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes29c66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.81,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No79c63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7120838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c62.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No63c62.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.582,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bdc…e076backed Yes24c61.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.346141%25 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes21c61.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2613035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7548523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes21c58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.021,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No66c57.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0238860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No49c57.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.132,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No42c57.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.931,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes65c56.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.77949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No71c54.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9940461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes32c53.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.132638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed No77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.52445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3827056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked No78c49.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9515868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No72c45.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.517,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes62c44.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.126,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes61c44.22$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1434067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes30c43.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No70c43.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3915369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No75c41.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3175546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.843441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No53c39.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.681,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c34.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No70c33.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.751,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes54c32.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9152446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes39c31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9257747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No38c30.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.452,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03b5…c585backed No68c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.122240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No73c23.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6a…4614backed Yes61c22.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0110246.1%47 W · 55 L-11.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.231,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.952,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea4a…39d3backed Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No80c19.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4534853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes55c19.02$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6410758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe89e…7219backed No79c17.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.477876.9%60 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb344…0e61backed No75c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.251060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.