Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x031b1aeaae92c2ddc1ec7b27bca5572c9d3db1bce156f41c2860f6836b0f9c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 1,634$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,107$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 792.97$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.76 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 22c | 785.41$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.05 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 621.78$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 556.87$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 476.12$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 80c | 371.63$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 341.86$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 299$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 21c | 250.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.58 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 58c | 236.19$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.16 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 226$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 224.35$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 212$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 203.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 79c | 197.84$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.62 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 180$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 178.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 46c | 167.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 24c | 152.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 150.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 59c | 150.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 129.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 128.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes | 70c | 124.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d01…7151backed Yes | 20c | 122.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 62c | 118.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 78c | 118$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 112$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 111.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 11c | 108.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 106.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 21c | 105.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 12c | 100.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 93.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed No | 48c | 91.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed Yes | 55c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 58c | 86.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 22c | 84.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 83.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 81.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 63c | 79.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 36c | 79.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 22c | 75.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 21c | 70.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…e627backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…40a1backed Yes | 43c | 69.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 80c | 69.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 79c | 69.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 68.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 23c | 67.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 24c | 67.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 17c | 66.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 79c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 62.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 24c | 61.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 21c | 61.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 66c | 57.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 57.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 42c | 57.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 65c | 56.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 71c | 54.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 32c | 53.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 78c | 49.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 72c | 45.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 44.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 61c | 44.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 43.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 43.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 75c | 41.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 39.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 34.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 70c | 33.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 54c | 32.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 30.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…c585backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 23.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 61c | 22.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39d3backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 80c | 19.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 55c | 19.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 79c | 17.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…0e61backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.