Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x781782cf9e5a6cd93d59b137e6e84fe7a15fbcab67373e07ffdf4adac80f667a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,064$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 66c | 859.6$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.31 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 691.23$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 578.51$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 17c | 484.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 11c | 473.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 30c | 448.76$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 29c | 407.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 40c | 375.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 7c | 375.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0883…cb3ebacked Yes | 32c | 361.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 346.88$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 330.85$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 302.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 299$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 295.66$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 285.63$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 249.04$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 231.64$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 16c | 203.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 25c | 192.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 178.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 30c | 165$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 35c | 149.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 130.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 77c | 128.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 128.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 125.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 121.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 115.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 112.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 110.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 31c | 102$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 98.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 97.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 97.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…c395backed Yes | 38c | 96.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 42c | 94.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 91.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 83.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 80.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 29c | 75.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 37c | 62.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 18c | 62.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 32c | 62.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 37c | 61.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 59.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 59.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 58.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 69c | 57.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 57.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…435fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 55.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 53.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 52.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 20c | 52.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 28c | 51.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 62c | 49.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 49.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 48.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 48.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4ea7backed No | 72c | 46.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 60c | 46.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 46.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 31c | 42.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 41.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 41.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 71c | 40.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 39.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 39.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 39.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4095…24e2backed No | 61c | 38.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 40c | 37.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 40c | 36.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 50c | 35.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 32.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.