NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036060f980a31edee7519baa57f9b5bc5f5d5905f54cdb90e43b9c487b26d02e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,124 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 52c | 15,986$8,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,673.08 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 4,933$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.17 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 4,584$2,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 53c | 3,776$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.14 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 53c | 3,333$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.5 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 47c | 3,148$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.38 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.99 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,220$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.48 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…aa48backed Under | 55c | 846.9$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 527.22$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.05 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 48c | 419.81$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.51 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Over | 48c | 302.08$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 47c | 294.87$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.59 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 43c | 268.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 53c | 223$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Over | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Over | 48c | 157.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 53c | 144$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…3520backed Over | 54c | 137.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 49c | 131.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…47afbacked Over | 47c | 93.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Over | 46c | 91.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 90.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 89.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 43c | 89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…6a38backed Over | 48c | 81.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 51c | 78.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…ae0ebacked Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Over | 48c | 55.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…f64abacked Under | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…4182backed Over | 50c | 52.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…f55cbacked Over | 50c | 52.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 51c | 52.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 61c | 51.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…db7ebacked Over | 48c | 50.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…c84dbacked Under | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 55c | 45.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 52c | 45.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 43.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 53c | 39.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Under | 66c | 35.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Under | 48c | 33.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 33.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 36c | 32.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…71a0backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…c57abacked Over | 48c | 31.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 58c | 30.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Over | 42c | 28.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 48c | 21.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845b…6822backed Under | 58c | 18.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. BruinsMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.