TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Bruins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$516,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $516,787 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 539 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bec…b215backed Maple Leafs36c175,559$63,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,357.5116442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bruins64c79,981$51,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,026.0461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Maple Leafs37c50,000$18,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,499.9522443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Bruins64c45,092$28,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,858.6941850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Maple Leafs37c27,383$10,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,366.021,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Bruins64c23,438$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0004553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Bruins30c18,887$5,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,726.8812838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Bruins64c17,188$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,00040356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Maple Leafs36c15,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,60012950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bruins63c13,806$8,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,741.361,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Bruins64c13,087$8,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,375.633351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x759c…5f4bbacked Bruins64c12,696$8,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,125.21050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Bruins54c12,467$6,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,693.3927448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Maple Leafs32c11,000$3,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,469.9561748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Maple Leafs23c10,252$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,894.412657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Maple Leafs37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,30010145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bruins70c9,726$6,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,856.551,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Bruins63c8,896$5,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,604.4816955.6%94 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32dd…c881backed Bruins64c8,340$5,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,337.61675%12 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bruins63c6,771$4,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,265.721,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Maple Leafs60c6,242$3,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,490.291,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Bruins75c5,196$3,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,907.4775251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Maple Leafs36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Maple Leafs37c4,941$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.7450049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa89a…8667backed Bruins64c4,647$2,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,974.351770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec6e…2a01backed Bruins64c4,472$2,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8621346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Bruins63c4,200$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,645.9943548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Maple Leafs34c4,193$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,760.0457157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs54c4,054$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.1595049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Bruins63c4,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Bruins63c4,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Bruins63c3,968$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5008544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bruins64c3,777$2,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,41785250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bruins30c3,668$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.492,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Maple Leafs37c3,500$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20527547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs46c3,499$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.723,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bruins63c3,174$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.6252050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Bruins64c3,125$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Bruins63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89025446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Maple Leafs36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Bruins44c2,866$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25036948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Bruins63c2,702$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Maple Leafs66c2,650$1,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.8289636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Bruins62c2,640$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.9683652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Bruins64c2,628$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.118845.5%40 W · 48 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Maple Leafs74c2,510$1,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.8952172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bruins60c2,419$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.581,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Bruins64c2,357$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.484748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Bruins64c2,313$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4807149.3%35 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Bruins63c2,222$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.864139%16 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Bruins64c2,222$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.0889249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Bruins64c2,188$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Bruins64c2,007$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.4821755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Bruins63c2,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Bruins63c2,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2601,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Bruins63c2,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.9820450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Bruins63c1,887$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.7726750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Maple Leafs34c1,712$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.9224654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Maple Leafs72c1,679$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.533234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x808c…b77ebacked Maple Leafs37c1,521$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.061330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Bruins55c1,479$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.517353.8%93 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc6b…e7bbbacked Bruins64c1,420$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.581553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Bruins74c1,336$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.9985464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bruins27c1,286$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Maple Leafs35c1,279$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.1933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Maple Leafs79c1,261$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.386253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Maple Leafs36c1,205$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.7176950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bruins63c1,179$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.141,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033a…fc42backed Bruins63c1,179$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.785646.4%26 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Maple Leafs39c1,158$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.9222043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Maple Leafs68c1,122$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.041,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94fc…7162backed Bruins64c1,113$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe548…a51abacked Maple Leafs40c1,100$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Maple Leafs36c1,069$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.1431848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bruins63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63058352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Bruins20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015431.8%49 W · 105 L-12.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Bruins64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64020951.7%108 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf180…4b84backed Maple Leafs37c971$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.734650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Maple Leafs62c943.82$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.4219254.7%105 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Bruins59c882.32$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.551,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Bruins64c877.42$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.555757.9%33 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Bruins50c853$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.9670249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Maple Leafs52c804.64$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.371,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Bruins63c800$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50445749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed Bruins64c793.75$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5086953.6%37 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Bruins64c790$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.622352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Bruins64c781.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69d9…9881backed Bruins64c781.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030657.8%177 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed Bruins64c781.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006550.8%33 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs74c780.63$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.462,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Maple Leafs75c776$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19413856.5%78 W · 60 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+32.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Bruins65c767.78$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.0629448.6%143 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be5…5741backed Maple Leafs41c751$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.091838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Maple Leafs61c741.89$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.921158.8%124 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee4c…8572backed Maple Leafs26c740.42$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Maple Leafs64c728.36$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.5351949.5%257 W · 262 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Maple Leafs36c724.15$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.731,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Maple Leafs37c697.3$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.322151.1%113 W · 108 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Bruins64c675.78$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.531753.9%171 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Maple Leafs37c675.68$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.684850%24 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.