NHL · resolved market
Spread: Bruins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d13bb15c0ec96b1bf3e6246f02f88a9188e9a4ed51ff721c1b005dc6b373fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Bruins, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,604 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82b7…cc32backed Bruins | 42c | 3,080$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.6 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 2,655$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.23 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Bruins | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…2984backed Bruins | 42c | 952.36$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 864.08$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.91 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 754.97$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.09 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 648.7$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.48 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 585.29$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.82 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Bruins | 43c | 544.64$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.03 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 517.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 506.51$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.73 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 498.26$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.89 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Bruins | 42c | 490$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Bruins | 38c | 428.7$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.83 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 349.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.7 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Bruins | 42c | 298$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Bruins | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 393 | 43%169 W · 224 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bruins | 19c | 201$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Bruins | 42c | 169.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Bruins | 42c | 167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…36c1backed Bruins | 42c | 157.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 113.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Maple Leafs | 43c | 109$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Bruins | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bruins | 42c | 93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Bruins | 42c | 93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…629fbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 85.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Bruins | 51c | 78.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bruins | 52c | 72.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…3059backed Bruins | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Bruins | 42c | 66.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…92c9backed Bruins | 45c | 66.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Bruins | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 43c | 50.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Bruins | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…d6c1backed Bruins | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Bruins | 42c | 49.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Bruins | 42c | 45.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…7bb6backed Bruins | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 35.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 35.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Bruins | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bruins | 40c | 33.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 28.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…e929backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…cd69backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. BruinsMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.