NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfead9ad57a1c25a979d3209af54adb1d791c5bb6be24b6ff94960d1f27769746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,251 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 41c | 1,214$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.68 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 45c | 977.89$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.64 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 59c | 593.22$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.22 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 57c | 523$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.43 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 59c | 416.81$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.89 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 293.19$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 41c | 220.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 49c | 193.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 59c | 186.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 41c | 179.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 41c | 106.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 98.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 59c | 85.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 72.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 41c | 58.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…b9abbacked Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…3520backed Under | 28c | 50.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 59c | 35.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Under | 60c | 34.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…13bebacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…1d88backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…f319backed Under | 60c | 27.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 58c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 59c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…cf24backed Over | 60c | 18.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. BruinsMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.