Serie A · resolved market

Will Bologna win on 2025-10-26?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03bac668e551383732a5cc905819a11fe8efc1e9add7cccd2f0888036e41171d

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $85,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $86,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,448 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes	32c	40,000$12,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,800	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No	66c	23,706$15,696 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,010.25	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed No	68c	13,028$8,859 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,168.85	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.15per pick	54cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf24…15ecbacked No	30c	10,000$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,000	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked No	68c	8,280$5,613 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,667.44	161	54%87 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes	70c	6,343$4,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,440.08	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	35c	4,660$1,650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,010.41	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Yes	31c	3,819$1,184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,183.86	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No	66c	3,418$2,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,167.94	246	57.3%141 W · 105 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes	34c	2,050$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$697	135	17%23 W · 112 L	-5.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed Yes	34c	1,481$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	129	50.4%65 W · 64 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0727…ec27backed Yes	33c	1,212$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.04	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	2c	1,110$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,087	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	+5.3wins	+0.16per pick	31cpaid	+169.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No	13c	987.87$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$857.17	200	33%66 W · 134 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed No	66c	699.99$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238	84	63.1%53 W · 31 L	+5.8wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	67c	665.93$446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.76	99	58.6%58 W · 41 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Yes	78c	641.03$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes	32c	625$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No	67c	622$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.26	447	53.5%239 W · 208 L	+17.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed No	42c	615.74$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.13	83	34.9%29 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes	35c	574.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-3.7wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-55%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed No	67c	521.34$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.04	57	61.4%35 W · 22 L	+6.1wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf763…414fbacked No	29c	503.45$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.45	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-3.2wins	-0.21per pick	35cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Yes	64c	468.75$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes	58c	450$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.5	430	58.6%252 W · 178 L	+15.8wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked Yes	35c	410$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.45	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-29%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0521…cc4abacked Yes	33c	399.5$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20eb…0bddbacked Yes	79c	330.03$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.79per pick	79cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e8…0596backed Yes	32c	308.28$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1543…623cbacked Yes	65c	307.69$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-4.4wins	-0.16per pick	57cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xc648…259cbacked Yes	36c	300$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked Yes	36c	300$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+3.7wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa52e…e2c4backed Yes	36c	297.22$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d4…9266backed Yes	34c	294.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+23%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc75…a292backed Yes	34c	294.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa78…d2d8backed No	68c	288.24$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.24	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes	35c	285.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes	34c	205.88$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80b6…ebb8backed Yes	33c	200$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec4…2030backed Yes	33c	181.82$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed No	66c	154.43$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.06	96	43.8%42 W · 54 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe011…e2aebacked Yes	78c	153.85$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	76cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed No	68c	150$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb1…6240backed Yes	33c	149.46$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a8…81f5backed Yes	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9117…cecabacked No	69c	145.28$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.28	85	48.2%41 W · 44 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No	67c	145.17$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.68	419	43.9%184 W · 235 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e2…1026backed Yes	33c	121.21$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked No	25c	120$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed No	68c	110.29$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.29	74	50%37 W · 37 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd31c…dac9backed No	21c	101$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.79	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	156	23.7%37 W · 119 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Yes	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa83…537bbacked Yes	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No	64c	92$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.12	285	56.1%160 W · 125 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c94…1f7dbacked Yes	78c	85.51$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.7	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad28…770cbacked Yes	72c	84.8$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.06	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x834b…1fa7backed Yes	33c	75.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes	49c	74.12$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.32	223	73.1%163 W · 60 L	+20.4wins	+0.09per pick	64cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc593…17d2backed Yes	34c	73.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf270…6015backed No	69c	72.54$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.49	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes	35c	71.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No	42c	68.25$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.66	102	60.8%62 W · 40 L	+8.1wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc759…b0d2backed No	28c	60.56$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.82	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…cdd7backed Yes	74c	60$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.74per pick	74cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Yes	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	115	46.1%53 W · 62 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2341…618fbacked Yes	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ca…7168backed Yes	33c	55.39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes	75c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+64.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes	36c	47$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	40	60%24 W · 16 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8330…b3b1backed Yes	33c	45.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes	33c	45.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	53	34%18 W · 35 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x644b…0007backed Yes	33c	45.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2241…4017backed Yes	35c	42.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	62cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6524…d2d8backed Yes	77c	40$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.77per pick	77cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc36…180fbacked No	40c	37.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…991bbacked Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa77f…f2e8backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd843…a597backed Yes	76c	30.57$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.23	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x566f…8f86backed No	41c	27.12$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89de…9bc9backed Yes	75c	26.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe44c…9f6cbacked Yes	78c	24.36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91e8…a953backed Yes	79c	24.27$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	67cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9963…14acbacked Yes	56c	23.32$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No	64c	23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.28	284	58.1%165 W · 119 L	+12.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked No	64c	22.22$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	96	51%49 W · 47 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3c…b62abacked Yes	74c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.74per pick	74cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ec…eeb0backed Yes	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Bologna win on 2025-10-26?this page
Will Fiorentina vs. Bologna end in a draw?Yes won
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-26?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Bologna win on 2025-10-26?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event