Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina vs. Bologna end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e9c2acfb73a51cd6ac3876f73d6c0120654b5d2c7054c469db9f4e6319597cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 31c | 7,500$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,175 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 7,450$5,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,140.16 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ab…42a1backed No | 68c | 1,400$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…12babacked Yes | 32c | 1,400$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,022$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.43 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 69c | 940$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.6 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 59c | 542.01$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.13 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 48c | 487.97$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.87 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 463.23$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.47 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 26c | 350$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…f6ecbacked Yes | 28c | 326.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed Yes | 20c | 256.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.61 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 74c | 249.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Yes | 72c | 222$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa20…ff4fbacked Yes | 22c | 210.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 28c | 160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 155$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 149$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 30c | 142.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 67c | 124.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…2d85backed No | 69c | 105.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed Yes | 64c | 93.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 30c | 71.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 69c | 70.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 125 | 65.6%82 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Yes | 27c | 68.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…da0bbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 116 | 66.4%77 W · 39 L | +14.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 68c | 37.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…5bc3backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked Yes | 32c | 34.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…82e3backed No | 70c | 34.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 75cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina vs. Bologna end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna win on 2025-10-26?No won
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.