Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03c2649d568f8578253d74795f0c179e4d0a523c52511e35e423aea8f2897f2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 1,893$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.73 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 68c | 840.56$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.11 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 465.76$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.84 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 245$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 33c | 186$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…6d28backed Yes | 25c | 183$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 156.82$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 139.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 63c | 125.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 116.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 96.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 84.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 73.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 61.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 34c | 58.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 17c | 58.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 923 | 34.1%315 W · 608 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 52.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 22c | 51.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 44.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 41.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 39.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…c6f3backed No | 77c | 39.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8060…8873backed Yes | 30c | 33.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 33.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed Yes | 35c | 32.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 30.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 75c | 29.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 69c | 26.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 238 | 47.9%114 W · 124 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 66c | 26.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…c191backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x453b…1764backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 13.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.