Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80ba80bb272be89522fbdbc28c6bb6cbcbfd488be3bfb64163215cf19716b3e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 58c | 820.25$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.04 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 40c | 499.68$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.67 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 61c | 327.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.42 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 279.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 26c | 240.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 209.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 65c | 158.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 152$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 135.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 27c | 132.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 117.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…0f45backed Yes | 56c | 114.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 110.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…4a7abacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 63c | 93.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 90.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 58c | 77.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5a9cbacked Yes | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 43c | 76.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 38c | 62.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 38c | 58.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 48.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 22c | 48.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 56c | 41.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 40.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 41c | 39.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 38c | 38.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 526 | 50.2%264 W · 262 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 44c | 31.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 30.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 39c | 27.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 27.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 43c | 25.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 63c | 24.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 61c | 23.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 58c | 22.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 59c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 59c | 17.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.