Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03f7d72bd589636672735f06a5d59632232512e64344cc4d2389b410636ab7d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21c7…0643backed Yes | 52c | 1,375$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 591.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 584.3$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 63c | 582.4$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.52 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 57c | 446.36$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.32 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 22c | 312.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 61c | 287.44$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…c35abacked Yes | 75c | 272.29$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 47c | 229.68$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 189.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 185.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 13c | 176.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 16c | 173$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 51c | 169$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 162.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 51c | 153.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 54c | 144$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 141.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed No | 50c | 138.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 19c | 137.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 38c | 132.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 46c | 122.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 115.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 48c | 112.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 110.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 108.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 107.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 107.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 106.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 105.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 50c | 99.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 47c | 97.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 23c | 96.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 43c | 95.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 94.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 52c | 94.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 20c | 94.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked No | 41c | 81.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 48c | 79.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed Yes | 48c | 76.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 43c | 72.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 67.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 66.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 55c | 66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 65.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 66c | 64.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 48c | 61.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 60.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…13c3backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 44c | 55.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 54.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 21c | 54.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 37c | 54.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 53.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 58c | 52.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 49c | 51.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 22c | 48.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…f092backed Yes | 52c | 47.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 46c | 43.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 59c | 43.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 42.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…e731backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 54c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…de1dbacked No | 54c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…48e9backed Yes | 51c | 37.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed No | 52c | 37.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 36.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06e…02d9backed Yes | 53c | 36.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed Yes | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac84…4dbabacked No | 50c | 35.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 66c | 34.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 34.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 32.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…e04bbacked Yes | 52c | 30.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 27.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d8…3c0cbacked Yes | 49c | 26.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 49c | 25.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…9067backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 24.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.