Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11eb06f67be415aa1506468baf5abdb9b28e3e406a3758c4c5267fd96aee9aa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 59c | 1,788$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.57 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 700$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 583.62$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 266.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 254.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…0643backed Yes | 54c | 227.31$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 205.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 201.66$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 201.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked Yes | 51c | 196.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 41c | 195.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 185.1$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 179.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 167.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 167.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 58c | 165$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 162$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 21c | 159.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 149.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 138.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 123.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 118.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 118.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…9f36backed Yes | 39c | 116.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 46c | 114.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 30c | 113.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…b3a8backed Yes | 38c | 111.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 110.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 108.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 106.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…ef07backed Yes | 43c | 105.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 105.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 105.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a17…fc4fbacked Yes | 43c | 104.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 48c | 98.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 45c | 97.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 11c | 97.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 62c | 96.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…8f04backed Yes | 43c | 93.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed Yes | 43c | 87.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 84.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 83.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 76.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 58c | 69.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 41c | 64.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 63.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 41c | 63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 53c | 61.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 57.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 39c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 39c | 56.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 52.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 38c | 51.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 50c | 50.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 49.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 49.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 35c | 47.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 42c | 45.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…4e61backed No | 60c | 45.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 59c | 43.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 49c | 41.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 39.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…7010backed Yes | 41c | 39.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 34c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 46c | 36.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 34.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 33.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…b7bdbacked No | 60c | 33.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 68c | 32.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 31.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 47c | 31.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 42c | 30.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 50c | 28.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.