Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04701271d1e692bca2a02e8bbc0926dee3314186f154aaa226868046336f4133
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 29c | 1,406$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.31 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed Yes | 6c | 1,135$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 564.46$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 364.57$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.07 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 344.33$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 271.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 256.46$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 225.63$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 219.05$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 217$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 27c | 214.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 207.69$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 21c | 149.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 31c | 126$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 120.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 119.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 27c | 114.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…55edbacked Yes | 15c | 101.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa138…7a9bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 13c | 99.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 90.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x902b…6e29backed No | 72c | 77.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 73.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 73c | 67.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 67.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 52c | 64.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 59c | 60.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 59.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed No | 53c | 55.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 27c | 50.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…6468backed Yes | 30c | 50.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…4aaebacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 65c | 47.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 31c | 42.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 74c | 38.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 75c | 38.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 74c | 36.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 73c | 30.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 76c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 77c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…ef0dbacked No | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 39°C or higher on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.