TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,166

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cfc…2111backed No44c1,150$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.8238243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes47c910.44$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.581,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes46c719.9$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.6321236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes49c659.64$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.642,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a338backed No12c404.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1629037.9%110 W · 180 L+29.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes46c366.55$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.2311438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No7c322$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.76,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes41c300$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.6743932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa138…7a9bbacked No26c299.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77110%0 W · 11 L-4.5wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No52c268$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.662,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed Yes77c247.81$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.815752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No29c243.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3149646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd74…730cbacked No7c238.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.221275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+74.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No29c236.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2679947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No56c223.63$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.84,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes55c208.57$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8240265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No53c204.62$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.981,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10457150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked No14c192.52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3625541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No24c170.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.21,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes71c169.55$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5536648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No42c169.43$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.245054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c162.06$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No31c158.35$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.14,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c158.32$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes54c153.7$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.778247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No7c146.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0624751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No19c137.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5953951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No34c134.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.11,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes41c125.86$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.771,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No49c120.69$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1472042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes51c120$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No53c110$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.24,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5885049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5249854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5623845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes72c97.82$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.824776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf865…d810backed Yes41c76.32$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.03540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No29c69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0615236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No56c68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.353,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No54c65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.55,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No36c64.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.642,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes65c64.35$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3922849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No25c53.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.142,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed Yes73c52.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.269769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0242948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a54…4aaebacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.554,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2718449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0220339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed No21c48.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1911856.8%67 W · 51 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.564,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes48c44.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2330722.1%68 W · 239 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes47c42.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.771,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No56c42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.734,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No56c40.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.713,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a23…932abacked Yes52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x885a…4e58backed No30c38.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.531376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+46%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked No54c37.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed Yes50c37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4510554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No50c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No55c30.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.921,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes45c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.61,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes70c29.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7519166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4115347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes47c25.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.71625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No67c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No59c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.752,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10fb…4651backed No58c24.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143943.6%17 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked No48c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5247239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes49c23.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.193,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No59c23.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.151,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes80c23.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No50c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…16e6backed No53c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.131136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No72c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1258358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x556b…4e33backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e33…6e0cbacked No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.