TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team WEof ThunderTalk Gaming, Team WE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,602 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9671…3a70backed ThunderTalk Gaming1c5,555$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.772844.6%13 W · 271 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team WE49c4,428$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,248.111,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed ThunderTalk Gaming4c4,342$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6729927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming49c4,324$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.667552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed ThunderTalk Gaming27c3,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Team WE68c2,827$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.1425038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Team WE76c2,700$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6601,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Team WE54c2,670$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.3276953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed ThunderTalk Gaming50c2,100$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05027346.9%128 W · 145 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed ThunderTalk Gaming51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0206139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Team WE51c1,965$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.0225751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed ThunderTalk Gaming46c1,586$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.681,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed ThunderTalk Gaming5c1,500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a3…3599backed ThunderTalk Gaming17c1,261$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed ThunderTalk Gaming58c1,200$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70063161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a0e…2330backed Team WE75c1,100$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2734847.9%23 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked ThunderTalk Gaming31c1,097$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.644751%228 W · 219 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec9a…ad34backed ThunderTalk Gaming30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012137.2%45 W · 76 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5099…7d87backed ThunderTalk Gaming2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked ThunderTalk Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d5…59cebacked ThunderTalk Gaming1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked ThunderTalk Gaming59c1,000$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.1714840.5%60 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8069…42dfbacked ThunderTalk Gaming7c999.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-45.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed ThunderTalk Gaming24c999.98$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.9913444.8%60 W · 74 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Team WE54c900$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41450547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team WE72c894.5$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.8782352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked ThunderTalk Gaming37c799.91$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.6529536.9%109 W · 186 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97f2…d84fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming30c716.17$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5213345.1%60 W · 73 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team WE73c698.62$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.631,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed ThunderTalk Gaming24c497.88$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4918741.2%77 W · 110 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team WE54c497.76$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.92,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team WE75c486.84$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.891,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed Team WE47c430$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23074344%327 W · 416 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked ThunderTalk Gaming34c421$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.211,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016851.2%86 W · 82 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcad2…c9e4backed ThunderTalk Gaming25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027248.9%133 W · 139 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed ThunderTalk Gaming32c396.01$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7975342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Team WE55c395.77$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.759745.4%44 W · 53 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed ThunderTalk Gaming27c370.96$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8521819.3%42 W · 176 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team WE67c367.36$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.231,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed ThunderTalk Gaming38c319.27$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7343151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Team WE71c311.27$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2770752.9%374 W · 333 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe092…477cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006056.7%34 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8439044.9%175 W · 215 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed ThunderTalk Gaming49c300$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.843542.8%186 W · 249 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed ThunderTalk Gaming14c298.59$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.631,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed ThunderTalk Gaming44c279.41$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2650643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed Team WE73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9724436.9%90 W · 154 L-18.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed ThunderTalk Gaming55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15035035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa271…a781backed Team WE75c265.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.257447.3%35 W · 39 L-8.7wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed ThunderTalk Gaming23c256.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.21,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3702…405ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming21c249.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team WE49c220.83$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.562,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a75…e444backed Team WE50c220$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7676…ada4backed Team WE55c200.17$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7622350.2%112 W · 111 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed ThunderTalk Gaming14c200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2984050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd795…6fcdbacked Team WE69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6231435.7%112 W · 202 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e7c…d12fbacked Team WE52c191.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.361145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9723…db9fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming53c187.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-49.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed ThunderTalk Gaming11c175.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc1…9932backed ThunderTalk Gaming24c169.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011937%44 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed ThunderTalk Gaming30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22c6…4574backed ThunderTalk Gaming16c162.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2621756.7%123 W · 94 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed ThunderTalk Gaming29c151.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf26b…f3b8backed ThunderTalk Gaming13c149.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028923.5%68 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52aa…8e3abacked ThunderTalk Gaming25c148$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked Team WE57c140.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.986839.7%27 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Team WE71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8539451%201 W · 193 L-14.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed ThunderTalk Gaming50c131.12$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5616058.8%94 W · 66 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked Team WE53c128.3$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7425639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ddd…5366backed Team WE68c123.1$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8712060%72 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f76…6323backed ThunderTalk Gaming13c120$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.621810.1%22 W · 196 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked Team WE53c101.42$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.949147.3%43 W · 48 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5df1…2da7backed Team WE49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.581855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b3…7c36backed ThunderTalk Gaming20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1b…5c88backed Team WE50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Team WE52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc05a…532bbacked ThunderTalk Gaming19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.410325.2%26 W · 77 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d1…3d4cbacked ThunderTalk Gaming25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530421.4%65 W · 239 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1287…85adbacked ThunderTalk Gaming37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked ThunderTalk Gaming36c94.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3415236.2%55 W · 97 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Team WE56c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.68924.7%22 W · 67 L-11.2wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa5d5…648fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming11c89.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103225%8 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-49.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming29c86.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530255.6%168 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x873d…97b5backed ThunderTalk Gaming29c86.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528924.6%71 W · 218 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Team WE31c79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5123915.9%38 W · 201 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+53.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dbf…6631backed ThunderTalk Gaming33c72.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.495018%9 W · 41 L-8.6wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-62.6%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x8ffc…6cf2backed Team WE72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.448355.4%46 W · 37 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-11.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed Team WE59c67.78$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7856060.4%338 W · 222 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa1…359dbacked Team WE71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.41866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x73c4…a92dbacked Team WE48c58.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.581450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba48…907cbacked Team WE79c50.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6398163.8%626 W · 355 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Team WE69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.53256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Team WE55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c86…9f68backed Team WE70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1510847.2%51 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba78…273ebacked ThunderTalk Gaming25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Team WE76c45.82$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a26…e195backed ThunderTalk Gaming50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54035%14 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x131e…3343backed Team WE47c42.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+110.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49d…c3dbbacked Team WE66c42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2863247.6%301 W · 331 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.